CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Dec 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares
(R1/Minor) events observed. The first was an M2.6/1f at 24/1649 UTC from
Region 3529 (S21W31, Eho/beta) and the second was an M1.1 at 24/1951 UTC
from a region just beyond the SE limb near S22. Region 3530 (N08W12,
Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth and the remaining regions were stable
or in decay.

Two CMEs were analyzed to have likely Earth-directed components. The
first CME, observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/1224 UTC, was associated
with a filament eruption near N48W35 at 24/0920 UTC. The second CME, 
observed in C2 data at 24/1548 UTC, was associated with a filament
eruption near S20W48 at 24/1438 UTC. Model output suggests both CMEs
result in glancing blows late on 27 Dec/early on 28 Dec.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for further M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares on 25-27 Dec.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to be at near-background levels over
25-26 Dec. The solar wind environment is likely to become disturbed late
on 27 Dec-early 28 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs
from 24 Dec.

Geospace

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 25-26 Dec. A
pair of CMEs from 24 Dec are anticipated to arrive late on 27 Dec,
causing periods of active conditions on 27-28 Dec.

-------------------------

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Dec 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 26-Dec 28 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 26-Dec 28 2023

             Dec 26       Dec 27       Dec 28
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         4.00     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         3.67     
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         3.00     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.67     
15-18UT       0.67         2.00         2.00     
18-21UT       1.67         3.67         2.00     
21-00UT       1.67         3.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

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